Thesis Institute · policy futures
Forecasts on every consequential cell of government data
Thesis provides three types of forecasts: government statistics, policy states (like the federal minimum wage), and conditional forecasts given different policy states. The audit trails, data, and everything else are visible.
How forecasts are generated
Every forecast cell is opened by the Thesis Institute analyst agent, which decomposes the question, calls the PolicyEngine microsim against scenarios drawn from encoded statutes and MICROPLEX synthetic populations, checks official public data sources, integrates external baselines (CBO, FOMC SEP, JCT, BLS, Census, ONS, ABS, Statistics Canada), and produces a calibrated distribution. Open each forecast to read the full streaming reasoning.